THE POLICY FRAMEWORK
1. The Government's General Election Manifesto said that we would conduct a Strategic Defence Review "to reassess our essential security interests and defence needs [and] consider how the roles, missions and capabilities of the armed forces should be adjusted to meet the new strategic realities". The starting point was the Government's Manifesto commitments to a strong defence against post-Cold War security challenges, security based on NATO, retention of the nuclear deterrent combined with progress on arms control, and a strong defence industry.
2. The Review has been foreign policy-led and the first stage, conducted jointly by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the MOD, provided the policy framework for subsequent work. Its analysis and conclusions, which are summarised in this essay, were tested against a range of outside views, including in two open seminars.
3. For most of the post-war period, British defence planning was dominated by countering the massive threat from the Soviet Union and by the withdrawal from our overseas empire. There was little foreign policy choice in how we organised our security. That situation has been transformed by the end of the Cold War and by the new co-operative partnership with Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The disappearance of the Soviet threat was a result, in part, of the effective system for collective defence in Europe which we played a key role in creating and maintaining. NATO has evolved to become a positive force for stability and confidence for the whole of Europe. We now have a real opportunity to devise a security posture which will support and underpin all Britain's interests overseas, in a world where democracy and liberal economic systems continue to spread.
4. The new challenges we face will call for the combined application of all the tools at our disposal - diplomatic, economic, trade, developmental, as well as the Armed Forces. In the changed world there is a new and growing role for preventive diplomacy which brings all these tools to bear to avert conflict before military intervention is required. However, this essay necessarily focuses on the defence dimension.
Interests
5. Britain's place in the world is determined by our interests as a nation and as a leading member of the international community. The two are inextricably linked because our national interests have a vital international dimension.
6. Britain is a major European state and a leading member of the European Union (EU). Our economic and political future is as part of Europe. British security is indivisible from that of our European partners and allies. We therefore have a fundamental interest in the security and stability of the continent as a whole, and in the effectiveness of NATO as a collective political and military instrument to underpin these interests.
7. Our economy is founded on international trade. Exports form a higher proportion of Gross Domestic Product than for the US, Japan, Germany or France. We invest more of our income abroad than any major economy. Our closest economic partners are the EU and the US but our investment in the developing world amounts to the combined total of France, Germany and Italy. Foreign investment into the UK also provides nearly 20% of manufacturing jobs.
8. British economic interests and our history give us other international responsibilities. Over ten million British citizens live and work overseas. We have 13 Overseas Territories spread around the world. We are members of many important international organisations and have developed close ties of friendship with countries in every continent. And as an open society, we are easily affected by global trends and other external influences.
9. A nation's foreign policy must reflect its values. Britain stands for a strong world community, where differences are resolved fairly and peacefully. Our national security and prosperity thus depend on promoting international stability, freedom and economic development. As a Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council, Britain is both willing and able to play a leading role internationally. We have a responsibility to contribute to a strong world community. But we cannot achieve all our aims alone. Instead, we need to work through strong partnerships and alliances, particularly the EU and NATO. We also attach immense importance to the international community as a whole working together through the UN and other international organisations.
10. This is summed up in the four broad foreign policy goals outlined by the Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary on 12 May 1997:
Security of the United Kingdom and Overseas Territories and peace for our people by promoting international stability, fostering our defence alliances and promoting arms control;
Prosperity, promoting trade and jobs at home, and combating poverty and promoting sustained development overseas;
Quality of Life, protecting the world's environment and countering the menace of drugs, terrorism and crime;
Mutual Respect, spreading the values of human rights, civil liberties and democracy which we demand for ourselves.
Security Priorities
Support to the Civil Power
11. Support to the Civil Power in Northern Ireland has been a major task for our Armed Forces. The future of Northern Ireland must be determined with the consent of the people. The Government is committed to reconciliation between the two traditions and to a political settlement which commands the support of both. The Good Friday Peace Process marks a new beginning in this respect and the Government is committed to its success. We must, however, maintain the ability to combat terrorism of all kinds throughout the United Kingdom.
Europe
12. Changes over the last decade have radically improved the security context for Britain, but the collapse of Yugoslavia has shown how instability in Europe can escalate into conflict and spill over borders. Collective security based on NATO, the transatlantic link, and the continuing development of a more effective European Security and Defence Identity in NATO through the WEU, continue to offer the best guarantee of deterring and insuring against new security risks in Europe.
13. Our military and political contribution to NATO is effective and highly valued. But because of increased operational commitments in support of foreign policy, many areas of our forces are now suffering from severe overstretch, with unprecedented short gaps between operational tours. This has effects on morale and retention.
14. It will remain in our interests to continue to play a leading role in the Alliance. If our contribution fell significantly, NATO's ability to undertake crisis management and peace support effectively would be reduced, our ability to influence NATO in ways which reinforce our security would decline and we would send a dangerous message to the US about Europe's willingness to share the burden of security in our region.
Overseas Territories
15. There are at present no immediate threats to these Territories. We must, however, be able to react to any emerging security problem and where necessary to assist the civil authorities.
Outside Europe
16. Outside Europe, our interests are most directly affected by events in the Gulf and the Mediterranean, and we have bilateral understandings with some Gulf States which carry the strong expectation of military support. Risks in these areas are likely to grow rather than decline. This does not, of course, mean that we need to recreate a standing or permanent military capability "east of Suez". Elsewhere the risks to our interests are either small or we have more choice over the level of our response, which would be generally in combination with others.
17. At the same time our planning needs to address new challenges: weapons proliferation, ethnic tensions, population pressures, environmental degradation, drugs, terrorism, crime and the failure of state structures.
18. These new sources of conflict can have a direct impact in Britain. Over 90% of the heroin on our streets comes from Afghanistan, where the civil war makes it impossible to tackle the problem at its source. In an increasingly interdependent world, such global problems can undermine the international structures on which we and others depend. With Britain's unusually wide overseas interests and assets, including the ten million British citizens overseas, we are particularly vulnerable. The number of such conflicts is increasing. In its first four decades the UN authorised 18 peace-keeping missions; in the past decade it has authorised a further 25.
19. We cannot turn our backs on the human suffering and economic and social damage which such crises cause. Our international stature and influence gives us a responsibility as well as an interest in responding to them. Our forces have a range of skills and capabilities which are particularly valuable in this context. Our primary means of tackling these problems are through preventive diplomacy and economic, social and developmental co-operation. However, military force, including its deterrent effect, can have a significant role to play when other forms of conflict prevention have failed.
20. There will be more calls on our Armed Forces to become involved in averting, managing or countering these new security challenges, with other NATO Allies or other countries. We should retain the ability to become involved when it is in our interest to do so and it will be important to have clear objectives, criteria for success and an exit strategy.
21. Our forces also make an important, often unsung, contribution to the spread of stability and democratic values through training and other forms of military assistance (now known as Defence Diplomacy); and through anti-drug operations at home and abroad.
22. Our own interests require the international community as a whole to support and contribute to actions to ensure international security. To encourage others to help shoulder the burden, Britain should take on a share reflecting the spread of our interests and our political leadership role, particularly in the UN Security Council.
The Defence Contribution
23. The Armed Forces make a major contribution to Britain's objectives in this rapidly changing world. They must not only be able to carry out the range of tasks which may arise from current priorities but also be sufficiently robust and flexible to cope with the longer term, when circumstances and priorities may change.
24. Our analysis has shown that to do this, our force structures and military capabilities need to be based on:
- ensuring European and therefore British security through a commensurate national contribution to the maintenance of NATO as a politically and militarily effective Alliance. This will include maintenance of nuclear deterrent forces (while pressing for multilateral negotiations towards mutual, balanced and verifiable reductions in nuclear weapons) and the ability to make an appropriate contribution to a regional conflict in Europe involving our NATO obligations, and retaining a framework on which it would be possible to rebuild over the longer term to meet a greater threat should one begin to emerge;
- keeping the ability to respond, in combination with others, to threats to our important interests, in the Gulf and the Mediterranean. At the upper end of risks this could require capabilities which are similar in scale and nature to those which would be required for a regional conflict involving NATO;
- providing support to the civil power in meeting internal security challenges in the United Kingdom and the Overseas Territories;
- responding to lesser risks to British interests beyond these areas and to other direct calls on our forces, including any threats to Overseas Territories, assistance to British nationals overseas, and support to wider British interests at home and abroad. In responding to many of these risks, we would normally seek to operate in conjunction with others. We would not expect to maintain additional forces or capabilities specifically for these purposes;
- supporting the Government's wider international responsibilities, including as a Permanent Member of the UN Security Council, particularly in relation to the maintenance of peace, international order and stability, humanitarian principles and democratic rights. Tasks of this sort are likely to be increasingly important, and may require a demanding range and scale of capabilities, although participation in individual operations will generally be a matter of choice;
- helping to counter the risks from emerging global security problems such as proliferation, terrorism and international crime.
25. Our vital stake in European security, our very important interests in the surrounding regions and our wider international responsibilities could each involve us in modern, high intensity conventional warfare. In all these cases, we could face opponents equipped with powerful modern equipment because of the increasing proliferation of weapons and technology. We therefore need forces which are flexible, highly capable, mobile and responsive. Recent experience has also shown us that our wider international responsibilities are now involving us in peace support operations where success depends on deterring or out-matching indigenous forces. This again requires forces trained and equipped for demanding conventional warfare.
26. The work summarised in this essay formed the basis for subsequent stages of the Strategic Defence Review. We believe that all measures in the Review package are consistent with its conclusions.
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