In order to determine and disseminate the Defense policy of the Argentine Republic, first it is necessary to make an analysis of the present strategic end-of-century scenario.
The characteristics of this scenario are such that, due to their widespread effect and shared impact, it is possible to summarize them into one single concept.
The above quality is accurately reflected in the title of this chapter, which also derives from the main characteristic of our time: globalization.
However, its analysis requires a prior reference to the event that led to this change in the international order, which both triggered and intensified the above-mentioned phenomenon.
About half a century ago, the world witnessed the beginning of the Cold War and the permanent tension that marked that international situation.
That period of "world order" ended in 1989 with the fall of the "Berlin Wall" - which became a symbol - and was dominated by rigid strategic conditions whose disappearance gave way to the particular nature of the world today.
The cold war was based on a bipolar system, led by the two superpowers that prevailed in that period of history. The proliferation of nuclear weapons available to both powers, with an "endless threat", created a strategic balance that almost completely dominated the international agenda, where security and military matters carried the greatest weight.
The possibility of a nuclear war with unpredictable consequences and the extreme antagonism of both systems acted as a containment wall for most of the other world issues, whether historical, cultural, or geographical.
The fall of that order, which prevailed during the Cold War, led to substantial changes in the international rules of the game, significant modifications in the structure of relations, the appearance of new phenomena and the enhancement or acceleration of preexisting ones.
In summary, the end of the Cold War established a new international agenda, presenting a wider range of contents and affected by unexpected variables and nuances.
Globalization
Globalization implies, in the first place, a complex and intensified interdependence among national economies, with a high level of interpenetration in all economic activities.
This process had already started during the Cold War, but its evolution was constrained by the East-West struggle. After 1989, with the victory of democracy and free market, this trend became more evident and it pervaded all relations among societies, whether social, cultural, scientific, communications-related, public, etc.
Thus, globalization goes beyond the merely economic aspect, originating a multidimensional world phenomenon whose complexity makes it difficult to summarize its main features.
Globalization undoubtedly requires more answers from society as regards fairness and solidarity. However, in this document we will not consider it as an ideology to be chosen, but as the part of our new reality which requires, from the political viewpoint, both a basic effort to understand the phenomenon and the consideration of viable alternatives in pursuit of people's well-being.
Having mentioned the two main changes in the international system --the end of the Cold War and Globalization-- we can now proceed to the other phenomena and processes that affected the evolution of the new international order, which are either direct consequences of the above mentioned factors or derived from their interrelation.
As already stated, this shows the highly complex nature of the intense exchange between countries across borders which, at the horizontal level, involves many government agencies including the Military.
A preliminary view reveals that there are fewer probabilities of a global war, either nuclear or conventional. In contrast with this concept, there is a multiplicity of new local conflicts, within a context of uncertainty that triggers unexpected crises, due to the difficulty of interpreting the signs of tension.
On the other hand, new and complex risks have appeared, with a strong interdependence in terms of security issues and without an efficient security system available.
In turn, there has been a shift in the nature and scope of threats, making it extremely difficult to define the profile of the future challenges beforehand.
On the one hand, classical threats to security are still present and relate to the integrity of the countries. Therefore, the strategic uncertainty prevents them from overlooking such threats.
But there has also been a change that takes the form of an emerging threat, such as the many varieties of transnational crimes, which have affected institutions and people because of their hostile nature and also increased border permeability between the countries.
There are also risk factors which, though lacking a driving force, are considered of interest to the countries, such as the stockpiling and transport of nuclear waste, the build-up of chemical, bacteriological and nuclear weapons and damages to the environment, among others.
Lastly, there are sources of instability that include all kinds of worldwide events. These are generated by external or internal, historical, cultural or territorial conflicts, perceived by the international community as critical situations which, depending on their evolution, might affect security.
In the past, events of this nature were considered unimportant in comparison with basic security and defense problems.
However, because of their transnationalization and their influence on the globalization process, these events are now taken into consideration by security and defense policies, since their particular geographical distance does not by itself reduce their influence. Thus, it is often difficult to distinguish between their external or internal nature.
Far from implying a militarization approach to such problems, changes under way require to adjust the elements of the State's defense, including the Armed Forces, to the new demands.
The importance of the hemisphere for Argentine interests - and particularly our region - in the present scenario leads us to analyze in some detail the political changes that have taken place in this geographical context, on account of their present or potential influence over national defense issues.
The map of our hemisphere has remained practically unchanged since the beginning of the 20th century.
Taking into account changes at a world level, the 90's gave rise to coincidences all over the Americas, featuring the almost complete elimination of non-democratic governments, the strengthening of representative democracies, important integration processes, a progressive economic interrelationship. The economies in the hemisphere were subject to severe adjustment, based on privatizing efforts and government spending reduction.
Nowadays, shared conditions for the development of important cooperation commercial bonds are increasing, though the imbalance of the globalization phenomenon causes gaps in the relative economic development of countries within this hemisphere. Moreover, in certain cases, those gaps exist between sectors of their own societies.
But the stable political and democratic situation has become the main common factor, while growing economic ties are a major contribution to development and peace.
On the other hand, the Latin American component of the hemisphere, particularly South America, presents a firm structure based on common historical, cultural and linguistic ties.
On the other hand, geography has traditionally placed South America in a situation of strategic isolation. Major international players have, to a certain degree, ignored it - a trend which regional integration processes have started to change.
Increasing dialog and stability
The early 90's led to the end of the most significant conflicts, particularly in Central America where final peace agreements were signed thanks to the Contadora Process.
The new Latin American democracies were united in this process and became accustomed to coordinating policies and setting up common objectives. This process also played an important role in achieving the present consensus. The Rio Group is the successor of the Contadora process, which now focuses on a wide range of issues.
A few years ago, the traditional border dispute between Peru and Ecuador came to a head. However, common actions developed by the guarantors to the Rio Protocol (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and the US) allowed to put an end to the confrontation and, through a regional peacekeeping force (the MOMEP), prevented an armed conflict while political negotiations were being held on the root cause of the conflict. A final settlement was reached in 1998 with the signing of the Presidential Minute of Brasilia.
Although there are other zones of unrest caused by domestic problems, at present the hemisphere enjoys a healthy stability and a climate of détente compared to other parts of the world. The general enforcement of the Treaty of Tlatelolco for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean is an important contribution in this sense.
Another point worth mentioning is Latin America's low investment in weapons - one of the lowest worldwide. (See Table 24-2)
This wide maritime space, with an eccentric nature, is the meeting point for a wide range of players from West Africa and east America, including several countries that carry out operations in the Antarctic continent.
At present, the control of natural resources in the energy and food sectors is a subject of fierce competition at world level. In both cases, countries have started to look to the sea. This has led to the presence of large extra-regional fishing fleets in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Another factor that has aroused much interest is the foreseeable availability of non-renewable resources.
The South Atlantic is therefore running the risk of over-exploiting its fisheries. Given the wide spaces at stake, control activities require significant efforts. In this respect, it is necessary to improve the preservation of non-renewable resources outside Exclusive Economic Zones.
In the wake of technology and communication developments, distances are now shorter. The main consequence of these advances is the virtual proximity of continental coasts separated by oceans. The seas that not long ago separated nations, now bring them closer. Thus, the oceans offer new possibilities of exchange with the African continent.
In our region, the legitimate coastal states of the South Atlantic Ocean have common interests, and therefore share the same need: to exercise control over the maritime space in order to protect it.
Coastal countries have expressed their interest in reaching an acceptable level of cooperation in several areas of concern. This provides the opportunity to cooperate in different fields, thus turning the ocean space into an area of integration and materializing the UN declaration of the South Atlantic as a "Peace and Cooperation Zone" (1986).
The inter-ocean passages
The Beagle Channel and the Drake Passage have been used as alternative routes to the Strait of Magellan ever since their discovery.
The Beagle Channel, as an inter-ocean passage, shows certain hydro-meteorological limitations, aside from the restrictions applied by coastal states, bearing in mind that the Channel's western part and such channels leading to the Pacific Ocean are categorized as domestic waters.
The Drake Passage represents the southernmost and longest route between both oceans. Extremely severe weather and sea conditions are experienced when crossing it. However, that path is presently the only alternative for large ships, oil tankers and warships, especially submarines. Furthermore, for other reasons, certain flagships carrying materials such as plutonium and radioactive waste chose this route.
Today, as always, Argentina continues to strive for free navigation and the enforcement of the international instruments ruling over those passages, within the framework established in such documents. This effort is reflected in the Peace and Friendship Treaty signed with Chile in 1984 and in ensuing negotiations aimed at establishing operating rules for the use of those passages.
Argentina contains a wide range of social-economic spaces. 80% of the economic activity is concentrated in the "litoral-pampeana" region (littoral-plains), and 45% of the territory is located in a warm climate zone. This imbalance is also reflected in population distribution and density, as 30% of the inhabitants are concentrated in 0.1% of the territory. Patagonia, with 4%, is the least populated region, though it comprises over 28% of the total area of the country.
This vast territory shows particular geographic environments which, coupled with population density asymmetries, create important geopolitical gaps.
Its environmental characteristics, population distribution, empty spaces and the present layout of the communications system have caused distant regions to develop their own activity, disregarding economic centers and tending towards self-supply.
90% of Argentina's foreign trade takes place through maritime means of transport, a situation that is changing due to increased regional overland trade.
The Río de la Plata, with 140 km. of artificially maintained navigable channels, mobilizes 80% of the maritime foreign trade. As an access gate of the great Paraná-Paraguay Waterway to the sea, the Río de la Plata is the most important fluvial transport route of the whole country. River sources are located in neighboring countries, which requires agreements on certain issues in order to preserve both the navigation conditions and the quality of the water and the environment in general.
At present, Argentina shows a steady economic growth, a solid position against international financial crises and the capability to attract direct financial investments.
The country has not only grown but has also changed substantially. Our economic policy has changed and a new economic system has been adopted. Our currency has become a respected and reliable economic institution, and its stability, supported by the Convertibility Act, has become a major factor for economic growth.
The Argentine production profile in the last years, with strong emphasis on agricultural industry and the use of natural resources - including fishery -confirms Argentina's potential for industrial development. At present, our country is the eighth world food producer and ranks fifth as international exporter.
Argentina has become the first power supplier in the region and shows great potential in the mining sector.
In the power field, 95% of the hydropower is produced in border areas, and 75% of the oil and natural gas reserves are located in the same zone. As to power transport, power lines and gas and oil pipelines also start in border areas. Large mineral fields are concentrated in that area as well.
The transformation in the field of telecommunications - as we have seen, the key to modern production methods and to social organization mechanisms -has been significant indeed. The level of digitalization, the quantity of fiber optic and the expansion of home cable television are leading the country into the era of interactivity, placing it in a favorable position in this strategic sector.
The social-economic structure of the country continues to attract neighboring countries, whose inhabitants migrate in search of new working opportunities and health care. This phenomenon is observed in the region of the plains as well as in important southern cities where the number of foreigners represents a significant percentage.
The empty spaces are a cause of great concern for countries like ours, due to the serious problems of overpopulation in other parts of the world. During the "Conference on Population and Development" (Cairo, 1994), the region of Patagonia was presented as an unpopulated area (less than 2 inhabitants per km2) together with Greenland, Saharan Africa and the Amazon.
These factors hinder the exercise of suitable controls the important area of environmental preservation.
Our EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) possesses enormous food wealth. It includes large fishing areas approximately 200 meters deep, which attract other countries that fish near the limits of the EEZ. This often triggers law-breaking episodes and, as a result, the Government needs to send national ships to avoid depredation. As a consequence, this situation requires permanent control activities.
On the other hand, Argentine sea species are characterized by their migration habits, a fact that leads to agreements aimed at establishing consistent measures to preserve these renewable resources.
The geological features of the Argentine continental shelf - of continental and insular nature - are suitable for hydrocarbon generation and trap formation, and for the eventual exploitation of polymetallic nodules. This makes the platform a future economic factor, which leads to the need for its preservation.
Our country has peacefully resolved many border disputes with its neighbors, particularly with Chile, after the 1991 presidential agreements, and in 1998 a presidential agreement was reached regarding a small sector known as Hielos Continentales (Continental Ice), which still remains to be ratified by both Congresses.
Argentina could be exposed to the emerging threat of drug traffic and other transnational phenomena if their actions increase, a situation worsened because of the characteristics of its borders (extension and morphology), which require permanent surveillance.
Another challenge to be faced is terrorism, both at local and world level. Our country has suffered from its actions and many lives were lost as a consequence thereof.