Lecture
Seminar
There are many ways to analyze the process that results in U.S. national security strategy and policy. One useful approach was developed by Graham Allison in three illustrative models that he initially applied to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. In it, he explained how groups tend to have particular interests, roles and missions, and why decision makers tend to 'stand where they sit' by adopting positions linked to their organizational or bureaucratic positions. In what Allison calls Model I, he described decisions as the result of the calculations of a unitary rational actor. In Model II, he viewed actions as the product of an organizational process that is essentially the standard operating procedures of governmental institutions. In Model III, he saw actions as the resultant of pulling and hauling by the many groups involved in a decision process. This has come to be referred to as bureaucratic or governmental politics. Allison redefined his treatment of the subject matter in a second edition, published in early 1999.
Alexander George presents another model for analyzing policy in terms of individual and group psychology. He argues that decision-makers are under considerable stress, caused by uncertainty and conflicting values. He describes the techniques officials follow to cope with these factors and the malfunctions that may accompany them.
Each of these models is useful, but none is perfect. At times, decisions are based on a thorough and rational analysis. However, individual and bureaucratic biases typically intrude. Moreover, these models of the interagency bureaucratic process tend to inaccurately depict significant external forces--Congress, the media, and public opinion--as merely ancillary factors filtered through the minds and arguments of the decision-makers. It is thus important not to assume that all strategies, policies, and decisions are the product of a rational actor or process.
Topic Objectives
- To understand models of decision-making.
- To assess the uses and limitations of such models in analyzing U.S. national security decision-making.
Questions for Consideration.
- When is the Rational Actor model most useful in analyzing policy?
- Where do Congress, the media, and interest groups fit in the Bureaucratic or Governmental Politics model?
- Which aspects of the planning advice given by Halperin are most persuasive?
Required Readings.
* Graham T. Allison and Philip D. Zelikow, Essence of Decision, 2nd Edition (New York: Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers, 1999), pp. 13-26, 143-185, 255-317. (Reprint)
* Morton H. Halperin, Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1974), ch 13, pp. 235-260. (Reprint)
* Alexander L. George, Presidential Decision-making in Foreign Policy (Boulder: Westview Press, 1980), ch 2, "Psychological Aspects of Decision-making," pp. 25- 63. (Seminar Reading)
* Irving L. Janis, Crucial Decisions: Leadership in Policymaking and Crisis Management (New York: The Free Press, 1989), chs. 2 & 3. pp. 27-63. (Seminar Reading)
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