201. Following the historic radical changes in Central and Eastern Europe, the political order of the Cold War is a thing of the past. The combination of German unity with the progress made in European unification and the successes achieved in the arms control and disarmament spheres has fundamentally improved the security situation, especially in Central Europe. Europe has the opportunity to create a lasting and just peace order uniting all Europeans.
202. The danger of large-scale aggression threatening our existence has been banished. Germany's territorial integrity and that of its allies does not face an existential military threat for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, the situation in other regions of Europe is characterized by war, inhumanity and repression. At the same time, there are increasingly significant global risks and undesirable developments, jeopardizing peace in the international community and the bases of existence of the whole of mankind.
203. The static political system of the Cold War has dissolved. The security situation is now characterized by dynamic developments arising from the tension between far-reaching opportunities and complex risks.
GERMANY IN A NEW ERA
204. During the East-West conflict, the threat posed to the West resulted from a combination of expansionist Soviet policies, the military superiority of the Warsaw Pact and the communist claim to absoluteness on ideological issues. The two world powers, and the alliances they headed, faced each other militarily as adversaries on German soil. The Soviet Union also neglected its international responsibility to do something about famine and environmental pollution and provide development aid. Instead, the communist superpower pursued a policy of armament and forced the West to react militarily, As a consequence, the pressing problems of the Third World were relegated to a lower level of priority.
205. Today, Europe is at the dawn of a new era. By August 1994, the approximately 340,000 formerly Soviet troops in Germany will have returned home. Moreover, the strengths of armed forces throughout Europe have been reduced significantly. The decades-old fear of a major nuclear conflict is a thing of the past, as is the threat to which the mission of the Bundeswehr was geared, namely to repel large-scale aggression by numerically superior conventional forces in Central Europe after a relatively short warning and preparation time.
206. As a consequence of this development, NATO has been able to drastically reduce its nuclear arsenal and forego ground-launched short-range nuclear weapons. The complete withdrawal of nuclear weapons that were restricted to German territory as far as storage and employment were concerned resolved a fundamental German security dilemma of the post-war era. This dilemma was that, on the one hand, the protection of the Federal Republic of Germany's freedom, peace and prosperity was only possible under the shield of the nuclear deterrent, whereas on the other hand a conflict would have meant that Germany would have been the country most affected by tire employment of short-range nuclear weapons. This dilemma was offset by an on the whole credible policy of deterrence and continuous détente efforts.
207. Germany has gained most from the revolutionary political changes in Europe. It has achieved its unity with the approval of all its neighbours and the world powers, and now has full sovereignty. The united Germany has remained a member of the North Atlantic Alliance and the Western European Union (WEU) and continues to enjoy their protection. It is surrounded solely by democratic states, friends and partners. This means that it has a special responsibility in developing relations in a spirit of partnership with the new democracies in Central and Eastern Europe, on the basis of Germany's continuing, firm commitment to NATO and the deepening process of integration in the European Union.
208. The radical changes in the security environment haw led to a fundamental improvement in Germany's strategic situation, At the same time, however, Germany must assume new international responsibility. By virtue of its political and economic strength, it has a key role to play in the development of European structures and is called upon to make a contribution to the resolution of future, problems throughout the world. It also has a central role in deepening and broadening European integration, consolidating the transatlantic partnership, developing the Euro-Atlantic institutions and strengthening the United Nations. Germany thus has an opportunity to become one of the determining factors and a creative force for peace and progress, both in Europe and in the international community. It must face its greater responsibility.
SECURITY POLICY OF THE FUTURE
209. Even though the East-West conflict is over, Europe is not an island of peace in a world fraught with conflict. It is now essential to lake precautions against new risks of a totally different quality to the risk that in the past rightly determined Western security thinking. Today's broad spectrum of acute and potential crises and conflicts no longer corresponds to the threat that existed in Europe during the Cold War era.
210. The risk of a major war in Europe has been replaced by a multitude of risk factors of a different nature with widely varying regional manifestations. On the whole, the number of unstable regions in Europe, Asia and Africa is growing. The willingness to employ military means is increasing in many places. In most cases, it is not possible to predict precisely how risks are likely to develop and what course crises and conflicts will take, nor is it possible to assess what their consequences will be.
211. Technological progress, international economic interrelationships and ecological threats transcending means and continents are bringing people and nations closer together. New information technologies have created a transparent world. Human suffering, even in far-away regions, is brought directly into people's living moms by the media. Poverty and destitution are thus an ever-present challenge for German foreign, security and development policy, the mission of which must also be seen as a contribution to the security of Germany. This challenge can develop political dynamism, even if vital economic or political interests of Germany are not directly affected.
212. Traditional concepts of deterrence and defence are not geared to domestic and social conflicts. This also applies to evolving crises that are due to famine, repression, under development, hatred and despair. Security policy must always he comprehensive in its approach. It must tackle the roots, of conflicts, if possible before they assume a military dimension. During the Cold War this was only possible to a limited extent; the political situation frequently compelled policy-makers to base their decisions on politico-military considerations to a greater degree than was desirable. In contrast, the present situation calls much more for the employment of a wide-ranging set of foreign and security policy tools for the early detection and, where possible, resolution of conflicts, in large parts of the world, people feel more threatened by poverty, famine, overpopulation, disregard of human rights and environmental destruction than by any thing else.
By combating ecological and social causes of conflicts, development policy helps to secure the very bases of people's existence, thereby contributing to foresighted crisis prevention, Following the end of the Cold war, Germany is promoting, within the scope of its development cooperation, disarmament ad demobilization measures in Africa, Asia and Latin America. This helps to reduce excessive defence expenditure and thus releases additional funds with which the partner countries can finance their own development-oriented efforts.
213. Now that the ideological confrontation is over, the economy and trade are increasingly becoming factors determining political relations. Today, a country's international influence is determined more by economic dynamism and technological innovation, by the competition for future markets and resources than by military might. New politico-economic centres are evolving. Against this background, no state can get away from the growing dynamism and interdependence of the world economy. Economic and social crises as well as environmental disasters can also have a security impact on Western societies.
214. Risk analyses of future developments must be based on a broad concept of security, They must not be confined to Europe, but must consider the interdependence of regional and global developments. 'they must include social, economic and ecological trends and view them in relation to the security of Germany and its allies. In the future, it will be essential to take account of all factors in a comprehensive assessment of the political and strategic situation.
215. Germany, as a modern, efficient industrialized state embedded in a worldwide network of intertwined relations, is influenced by many diverse political, socio-economic and military trends. In its geostrategic location in the middle of Europe, as a member of the United Nations, a participant in the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), a member of the North Atlantic Alliance, the European Union and the Western European Union, Germany is always affected by strategic developments. As a result, it has an obligation to make its contribution, along with that made by the other nations. Germany therefore needs a security policy that is oriented towards the future and makes a contribution to solving the problems that today confront Germany in Europe and in the international community.
THE CHANGING FACE OF EUROPE
216. The old European political order is no longer in force, while the new order of the forthcoming era is only now slowly starting to take shape. The break-up of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact have radically transformed the political structure.
217. In the future, the lesson learned in Western Europe over the past decades will apply to the whole of Europe, namely that the resources available nationally are inadequate to solve the major political problems. In Europe, the classic responsibilities of the state - welfare, security and progress - can no longer be accomplished on a purely national basis, but require international cooperation. At the end of the 20th century, only integration will allow the community of states, which has evolved over the course of history, to survive in a world marked by mutual dependence. The nations and regions of Europe will retain their political, cultural and ethnic identity. At the same time, however, Europe will evolve into a powerful political entity in the international community and grow together to form one of the largest single markets of the world economy.
218. The security landscape in Europe, however, presents an inconsistent picture - the continuing process of integration in the west of Europe as opposed to the centrifugal tendencies going as far as the fragmentation of state entities in the east and southeast of the continent. Europe is experiencing the simultaneity of integration and stability on the one hand and disintegration and instability on the other. While the complex system of interrelationships is being gradually deepened in the West, old ties are breaking up and new conflicts are breaking out in the East, even involving the use of brute force in some regions.
219. The end of the East-West conflict has resulted in shifts in the political map of Europe. As confrontation gives way to cooperation, the political weight of the nations and regions is changing, Old allegiances are becoming insignificant and are being overlaid by new political force fields. Leading powers and leading roles are manifesting themselves in new shappes. The American commitment in and for Europe, one manifestation of which is the presence of significant numbers of US forces, continues to meet with the widespread approval of the Europeans. Our new partners in Central and Eastern Europe, who have only recently cut off the yoke of hegemony, are especially in favour of the USA playing an active role.
220. The situation in the states of the former Warsaw Pact has developed in different ways in the individual countries. While some have made distinct democratic and social progress and are adopting the structures of a market economy, others are experiencing complex evolving crises. In the process, the politico-social consequences of the disintegration of the centralistic communist system are combined with and reinforced by structural deficiencies in the economic and social order, ecological risks and nationalistic tendencies.
These crisis factors could result in a regressive development with the progressive fragmentation of states and groups of states, changing coalitions and, as a consequence, violent conflicts.
221. Against this background, far-reaching reforms to establish new state and social orders are indispensable. A reorientation of thinking and behaviour is a prerequisite for the establishment of democratic structures, an efficient administration and a productive economy. This is particularly difficult in those countries that, by virtue of their historical development, cannot fall back on experiences of their own, However, initial important reform steps have already been taken along the mad to democracy and a market economy.
222. Russia and the other newly independent states of the former Soviet Union are heading down the difficult road towards a pluralistic democracy, the rule of law arid a market economy. Compared with other European countries, these states face the greatest development task. Right from the outset, it has been the objective of German policy to transfer the cooperation existing with the Soviet Union to Russia and all the successor states. Thus, the Federal Government was instrumental in ensuring that all states on the territory of the former Soviet Union were able to join the CSCE and other international bodies, for instance the North Atlantic Cooperation Council. The Federal Government is anxious to develop good relations with them, such as those it enjoys with Russia, in the interests of peace and stability throughout Europe.
The numerous and diverse problems of this region pose risks for stability in Europe. The break-up of the Soviet Union has oven birth to new states and turned millions of people into members of minorities. Ethnically rooted conflicts exist, especially in Moldova, Georgia, Armenia/Azerbaijan and Tajikistan. In these cases, the Federal Government is participating in efforts to find a political solution within the framework of the CSCE or UN. These conflicts can only be resolved on the basis of the CSCE principles. This is especially true when it comes to safeguarding the rights of national minorities and the inviolability of borders.
223. The Russian Federation is going through a lengthy and difficult process of transformation. The objective of the reforms being pursued by President Yeltsin is to establish a democratic constitutional state and a functioning market economy. The constitution adopted in a referendum on 12 December 1993 is a crucial foundation for this. The success of these domestic reforms and the incorporation of Russia into the overall European system are major challenges facing the international community. It is in the interest of all of Europe to take every opportunity to support the process of political, economic, social and military reorganization. Domestic reforms and a foreign policy aimed at integration into the community of states sharing democratic values and at cooperation in all the institutions of the European security order will assist this process. In this context, it is crucial that relations with neighbouring states are based on respect for their sovereignty, territorial integrity and equal rights.
The Joint Declaration of 21 November 1991 is a major step for the positive evolution of. Russo-German relations. It states that the objectives are "relations in a spirit of friendship, good neighbourliness and cooperation". Good Russo-German relations are an important element for the future European system of security and stability. The Federal Government thus supports the policy of reform and its exponents, especially in critical situations.
224. In Eastern Europe, a new regional power has come into existence in the shape of Ukraine. By virtue of its size, location, and its economic and military potential, it will have an influence on the development of security and stability in Central Eastern Europe and beyond. The Federal Government considers a democratic, economically sound and independent Ukraine to be a factor of European stability.
In Ukraine, the state and society are being reconstructed. In addition to overcoming communist power structures, it is above all a matter of national identity and a new place in the political system of Europe, Radical domestic reforms going beyond the approaches taken so far are indispensable hem.
Ukraine must fulfil its arms control obligations, which are binding under international law. The elimination of all nuclear weapon Systems deployed on Ukrainian territory and Ukraine's accession to the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear-weapons state are indispensable. The Trilateral Declaration issued by the USA, the Russian Federation and Ukraine on 14 January 1994 and ratified by the Ukrainian parliament on 3 February 1994 has improved the prospects of this.
On the basis of the Joint Declaration of 10 June 1993, Germany is prepared to cooperate with Ukraine in a Spirit of partnership, in addition to economic and political Spheres, this also includes an offer to provide assistance in the destruction of nuclear weapons, plus an agreement on military cooperation.
225. After decades of repression, the states of Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe are building up democratic, constitutional and market structures, some of them have achieved substantial progress as a result of their conversion efforts. In the sphere of security policy, they are in a transitional phase in which they are looking for ways to fill the security vacuum they perceive. They aspire to join the Western/Atlantic security structures.
They are laying claim to integration with equal rights into existing Western institutions, in particular the European Union and NATO.
226. For the Baltic states, the most urgent security policy objective is to achieve a complete withdrawal of Russian forces. They are in the process of building up limited armed forces of their own. Aware that they would not ultimately be able to counter militarily the risk they perceive, the Baltic states are anxious to establish close links with all-embracing Security structures in order to politically safeguard their independence and territorial integrity.
227. The neutral states of Europe are redefining their role. They have always made dedicated contributions to the reorganization of Europe. Their high political, social and economic standard will substantially strengthen the efficiency of European structures.
THE NEW CHALLENGES
228. Europe faces new challenges. Following the dissolution of East-West antagonism, regional crises and conflicts are becoming increasingly explosive. Their spectrum ranges from domestic social, ethnic, religious and economic crises to inter-state rivalries. Added to this are the effects of the prosperity divide plus demographic, economic and ecological developments of global significance.
229. The democratic developments in Eastern Europe are not immune to setbacks. Nor can they he viewed detached from the military potentials that exist in this region. The trend towards peaceful coexistence throughout Europe is not yet irreversible; there is a growing awareness of the danger that there would be a very high political price to pay if a state or group of states were to revert to a policy directed towards confrontation. Such a development would mean the withdrawal from the political, legal and economic structures of Europe and the European institutions, on whose efficiency all the states of Central and Southeastern Europe as well as Russia and the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union will remain dependent for a long time to come.
230. In all the countries of the CIS, far-reaching measures have been initiated to reform the military structures and bring about a conceptual realignment. In Russia, according to the new military doctrine, this involves renouncing the capability to launch a strategic offensive. Instead, farce structures are to be geared to national defence. In this context, Russia will also raise "rapid reaction form" numbering between 120,000 and 150,000 men. With these rapidly available forces, Russia can also keep open options outside its borders.
The implementation of the intention to give a defensive orientation to the concept, strength and structure of Russian forces has not yet reached a stage where it is possible to get a clear picture of the future maximum strengths and deployment of Russian forces. With a total force strength of around two million servicemen, Russia would also be the largest military power in Europe and, at the same time, a global nuclear power. Given this military potential, Russia must create confidence - above all by taking action itself - especially vis-a-vis its neighbours. A concept of spheres of influence would be incompatible with this. It is thus now imperative that Russia and the other newly independent states of the former Soviet Union pursue a military and arms policy and conduct force planning based permanently, comprehensibly and thus reliably on the requirements of regional stability and stability throughout Europe.
231. In the states of Central Europe, too, the one-sided pattern - a relic of the Warsaw Pact era - of armed forces being deployed towards the west is being dismantled. The aim is to achieve a more uniform distribution of forces over the entire state territory. This frequently entails financial difficulties, in addition, the force structures are to be adapted to Western models.
The states of Southeastern Europe have started reorganizing their armed forces, with the aim of converting the structures -which were previously geared to the functional division of responsibilities of the Warsaw Pact - to the requirements of national defence. In Us region, however, there have recently been indications that the changed threat assessment in the context of the conflict in the former Yugoslavia is slowing down the process of force reductions.
Nevertheless, it must be emphasized that the armed forces of the Central and Southeastern European states are under democratic control as part of the primacy of politics.
232. The military budgets in the CIS states and in the countries of Central Eastern and Southeastern Europe being subjected to heavy cuts. Economic constraints impose limits on defence expenditure which, even with reduced strengths, barely allow day-to-day operation of the armed forces to be maintained. Yet Russia, in particular, is attempting to at least preserve its research and development capacities in the sphere of military high technology. However, a comprehensive programme of modernization for the equipment of the armed forces would only he possible if Russia were willing to accept a threat to its economic reforms and social development.
233. The security policy of the North Atlantic Alliance and that of the European Union are based on the will to cooperate, extensively and in a spirit of trust, with all partners within the scope of an all-European security and stability order. The objective is to tie the states of Eastern Europe as closely as possible to Western structures by pursuing a policy marked by cooperation and integration, thereby preventing a development that could result in a relapse into confrontational patterns of behaviour. The great amount of time required for any military reconstruction would in any case allow the North Atlantic Alliance to fully bring its solidarity and high economic efficiency to bear. A prerequisite for this is that there must be no doubt about its retaining its military reconstitution capability and its ability to conduct defensive operations.
234. Now that the East-West conflict has been overcome, historical conflicts that were suppressed under communist role are breaking out again with a vengeance. As a result, civil wars, domestic and regional conflicts are once again possible in Europe. Because of the many and diverse national and regional risk situations, these conflicts may arise unexpectedly and escalate regionally Admittedly, a military threat to NATO is on the whole unlikely. However, any war or civil war in Europe jeopardizes the process whereby Europe grows together into a peaceful and stable continent. What is needed is thus not only political measures to promote stability among neighhours throughout Europe and to prevent new regional arms races, but also, and above all, a pronounced crisis and conflict management capability. In particular, a cooperative security order is called for, in which effective barriers exist against the use of military might, thereby enabling conflicts to be prevented in a foresighted mariner.
CFE: Holdings and Reductions Throughout Europe
235. The tragedy in the former Yugoslavia illustrates that the states of Europe are not yet adequately prepared for, in particular, ethnically rooted war risks and domestic conflicts. The new political order of Europe and the fundamental principles of indivisible security are in jeopardy in the former Yugoslavia. This is causing many states - not just those in the vicinity of the conflict - to think increasingly in the old categories of purely military -oriented security. At the same time, however, there is a growing realization that the instruments of European order must become more effective in order to successfully prevent armed conflicts, to afford better protection to minorities, to take resolute action against those who disturb the peace and to enable those who are attacked to defend themselves more effectively.
236. In an interdependent world, all states are vulnerable; underdeveloped countries because of their weakness, and highly developed industrialized states because of their complex political, social and economic structures. There is an indissoluble link between domestic stability in the realms of politics, the economy and society and stability in an international setting. Destabilization of the international scene may also become a security risk for Germany.
237. The degree to which these instabilities pose a threat is not so much a product of the possibility of a military escalation. What is much more serious is the negative impact on the economic and financial efficiency of the industrialized states and the related harmful repercussions on economic and social progress in the underdeveloped regions of the world. The real global security risk of the future is thus a vicious circle of mutually reinforcing destabilization processes which may ultimately escalate into violence.
World Population Development, 1999-2025
238. With the end of East-West antagonism, it is no longer legitimate to divide up the international community into a First, Second and Third World. Today, the traditional concept of developing countries has to be defined more precisely. It covers, on the one hand, regions in which he per capita income has decreased by around one per cent over the past decade, for instance Sub-Saharan Africa, and on the other hand the countries of Eastern Asia, where, over the same period of time, the average citizen, earned statistically three per cent more each year. whereas numerous countries in Asia are catching up with the level of development of the OECD states, and in large sections of Latin America economic developments are becoming increasingly dynamic, for many developing countries, especially in Africa, the model of an affluent society on Western lines remains unattainable. 85 per cent of the world's population continue to earn around 20 per cent of the world's income; one fifth of humanity live in absolute poverty. The dividing line between rich and poor is no longer identical to that between North and South, but runs straight through states and societies. However, the development successes achieved by a number of countries in Eastern Asia, Latin America as well as on the continent of Africa prove that it is possible, even under less favourable economic and demographic conditions, to stabilize economic development and reverse negative trends. For this to happen, there are two prerequisites: market-oriented economic reforms and domestic peace. Even under difficult conditions, it cannot be said that retrogression is dictated by fate if the developing countries take the necessary reform measures to establish development-promoting parameters and government policy concentrates on promoting human resources, Germany's development policy thus supports its partners in the developing countries and Eastern Europe by "helping them to help themselves" as they make efforts of their own. It thus constitutes a major component of global German peace and security policy.
239. In those parts of the world where a sizeable proportion of the population is living at subsistence level, natural resources such as farmland and drinking water are increasingly becoming less available. Every day, 45,000 hectares of tropical rain forest are destroyed, 20,000 hectares of land are eroded into deserts by over. Exploitation of the soil, and almost 90 million tonnes of fertile soil are removed. Today, one billion people are suffering from malnutrition, with 40,000 children dying every day from nutritional deficiencies. 40 per cent of the world's population already suffer from water shortages. Two examples: the draining of the Aral Sea alone, as the result of a totally unsuccessful agricultural policy, is plunging millions of people into disease and poverty and in the Middle East, a region armed to the teeth, water will become a matter of life and death over the next few years. In some parts of the world, conflicts over natural bases of existence could thus also lead to clashes between individual states.
240. In the 1990s, the supply of energy will once again become a crucial issue. According to an estimate by the international Energy Agency, world consumption of petroleum will increase by over 30 per cent by the year 2010. Rising prices for this commodity, supplies of which are running out, could jeopardize economic progress in the developing countries. Western Europe is interested in the stability of those regions via which it receives its supplies of oil and gas.
241. Environmental pollution caused by man is developing into a global threat to the natural bases of existence of all mankind. The warming of the biosphere, air pollution and nuclear contamination such as that caused by Chernobyl threaten large and densely populated areas of the world, The consequence could be migration waves of undreamt-of dimensions.
In the Asia-Pacific region, in particular, industrialization and population growth are resulting in a high level of environmental pollution with a considerable local, regional and global impact. Growing energy requirements, which are met by using largely obsolete technologies and on the basis of fossil fuels, are leading to a rise in gas emissions, thereby aggravating the greenhouse effect.
242. In underdeveloped and unstable societies, human rights frequently are scarcely respected, or even ignored completely. Today, two billion people largely enjoy no human rights, and 2.5 billion only enjoy them to a limited extent. This amounts to seven eighths of the world's population. A growing number of people have to permanently endure injustice, repression and arbitrary rule, and live in fear of war, violence and economic hardship, This all adds up to a situation in which they see no way out other than flight and migration. These migratory movements, which often take the form of a mass exodus, are additionally shaking the domestic order of states and regions, placing a great burden on the receiving countries, particularly those in the Third World. According to estimates by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are currently around 19 million refugees worldwide, plus around 24 million who have been driven to another part of their native country. In addition, it is presumed that at least 100 million people are living as migrants outside their own country.
243. The continuing arms build-up in many parts of the world makes the problems of the underdeveloped regions even more explosive. Each year, for instance, the developing countries spend 200 billion dollars on arms - the same amount as they spend on health and food. One third of their foreign debt is attributable to arms purchases.
Armament and war not only consume scarce financial resources, but also destroy reconstruction work accomplished in the put. Bosnia and Somalia are depressing examples of over 30 military conflicts in the world. The industrialized nations also feel their consequences. In 1993 alone, the UN peacekeeping operations owl more than three billion dollars. War damage repair and the prevision of care to countless refugees thus cost money that can no longer be invested in economic and social progress.
244. Throughout the world, many states still aspire to own weapons of mass destruction and the relevant delivery vehicles. more than 20 states possess short-range and intermediate-range missiles. In addition to the five established nuclear weapons states, three states currently have the capability to develop nuclear weapons and may already possess them. Several states are presumed to be working on the development of nuclear weapons. By the end of the decade there could be 30 countries able to wage chemical warfare and 10 countries able to wage biological warfare. The greatest threat would arise if biological, chemical and nuclear warfare capabilities were to get out of control. The fact that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery vehicles poses a threat to international security means that the international community must intensify, its efforts to prevent any further spread of these dangerous weapons and if such a spread has already taken place, to undo it Cooperative efforts to prevent proliferation haw priority. However, caution dictates that precautions be taken to protect against potential threats that would arise if these efforts did not have the desired success.
REGIONAL REFLECTIONS
245. In Central Europe, the likelihood of a conflict is slight; it would be conceivable only after a fundamental reversal of current developments. In regions with strong ethnic antagonism, such as the Balkans and Caucasus at present, war is a reality. However, a military threat to a member of the Alliance is conceivable only as the result of irrational policies and an uncontrolled conflict escalation. The Euro-Atlantic security institutions must have at their disposal an effective strategy of foresighted conflict prevention. They require flexible and effective instruments for political and military crisis and conflict management to be in control of the numerous and diverse crisis situations and to contain conflicts.
246. In the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia, the economic and social problem to be dealt with are comparable to these in the classic developing countries. All these states are in a profound economic crisis. Their agriculture, based on monoculture, is underdeveloped. Ethnic conflicts are widespread and are hampering political and economic reforms. Their significance as the politico-cultural point of contact between Europe and Asia and as the point where various strategic interests intersect means that the instability prevailing in this region is of particular significance for the peaceful development of Europe.
247. Much of Africa is suffering from mass poverty, progressive overpopulation, underdevelopment, inadequate state organization or environmental disasters. The industrialized nations cannot close their eyes to these problems. It is essential to ensure respect for humanity and human rights. This is above all a task for the United Nations.
248. The Mediterranean is of central importance as a hub of major trade mutes to the countries of North Africa, Western Asia and the Far East. Developments in the Mediterranean region thus play a major role for the security and stability of Europe as a whole. Almost all North
African states maintain armed forces whose personnel strengths have continued to grew in the last decade. Some of them are equipped with modern weapons of Eastern or Western origin. In the spectrum of security risks in this region, the possible threat posed by ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction has to be taken into account - especially for Germanys allies in Southern and Southwestern Europe.
249. In the Middle East and Southwestern Asia, the consequences of regional power ambitions, differing degrees of economic and social development, religious and ethnic conflicts, the military arms build-up and a shortage of resources combine to form a potential that could also become a threat to the security of Europe. In this context, European security interests are, to a certain extent, affected by military risks, but to a much greater extent by the dangerous impact that the developments may have on the economy in this region. Cross-border environmental problems, migratory movements, dependence on raw materials and the free movement of trade, the increasing indebtedness of the economies of this region as well as the interdependence of the financial markets are the factors that could rock the stability of the social and economic structure of the states of Europe. This region is of key importance for the future relationship between Europe and the islamic world.
250. Nevertheless, in the Middle East, the peace process has achieved an important breakthrough. For the first time, there is cause for a realistic hope of a lasting peace and fruitful cooperation between all the parties involved on the basis of their common interest in peace, stability and economic development. There is a long-term prospect of states which used to be enemies living together peacefully as neighbours and prospering together thanks to economic interrelationships, and this in the midst of a region of the world that is on the whole unstable. This development could have a positive impact on the entire region from North Africa to Southwestern Asia and gradually remove a conflict potential that poses a threat to Europe, at the same time paying the way for new cooperation at the point where three continents intersect.
251. The developments in Asia constitute a challenge full of opportunities for the whole of Europe in every respect. Over one half of the world's population live in Asia. With a forecast annual economic growth rate of seven to eight per cent for the foreseeable future, Asia is the most dynamic growth region in the world. In 1960, Asia generated four per cent of the world's gross national product; today, this figure has risen to 25 per cent, and in ten years' time it could be as much as one third of the world's gross national product. Huge markets for consumer goods and foodstuffs are being created. In the sphere of technology, Asian companies have fought for and attained leading positions worldwide. Asia plays a leading role on the global financial markets, Today, Eastern and Southeast Asian states are already some of the most powerful driving forces of the world economy. This will be even more true in the nut century.
252. Japan, China, India and other up-and-coming states are major political powers. With the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), Asia has one of the world's few functioning regional organizations. Moreover, the whole of Asia is marked by a high degree of self-confidence. Some countries are formulating more clearly than in the past their demand for participation in and influence on regional and global developments. This is matched by an increasing preparedness to assume more regional and global responsibility. Only by involving the Asia-Pacific governments will it be possible to perform the global tasks of peacekeeping, development and environmental conservation.
253. Despite all the positive and dynamic developments, there is still widespread poverty in Asia. This continent has more poor people than any other continent. The economic and social gap between individual Asian states, indeed even within states is huge, This is compounded by cultural, religious and ethnic differences. The result could be threats to peace and stability of global significance. As Germany's future as an economic power will also be determined by developments in Asia, it is thus in Germany's own interest that the states of this region develop into democracies and social market economies and that regional stability and a lasting peace prevail in the Asia-Pacific region.
Economic Fora in the Pacific Area
CONCLUSION
254. Military conflicts that could jeopardize the existence of Germany have become unlikely, especially as long as it retains the capability to protect itself in cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance. In the future strategic environment, military risks will only be part of a wide spectrum of variables influencing security policy.
Against this background, a preventive policy is called for to intercept risks when and where they arise and before they escalate into an mute conflict. Preventive security measures must be seen as an extended protective function. In this security policy concept, too, the capability to defend remains the foundation of Germany's and the North Atlantic Alliance's security. However, conflict prevention and crisis management in a widened geographical setting, with a mandate legitimizing such activities under international law, must be at the forefront of Preventive security measures,
255. Because of its interests, its international relations and commitments, Germany is affected by the entire risk spectrum. The challenges in the transformed environment cannot be tackled by any country or any of the existing security institutions alone. On the contrary, cooperative and collective approaches are called for. It is thus 'necessary to develop the apparatus of conflict prevention and crisis management in such a way that in the future it will also be possible to defuse crises at an early stage below the level of war and violence.
256. In this context, it is necessary to look at the entire spectrum of possible measures that can be taken to achieve this greater goal. An approach is required that, for concrete individual cases, takes account of political, economic, social, ecological and military aspects. In a political framework that aims at solving crises and conflicts by tackling their roots and causes, it may also be necessary to employ military means to prevent, confine or terminate violence or war.
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